$\Lambda$CDM and Holographic Dark Energy
Holographic dark energy is usually written
$$\rho_{\rm DE} = 3M_p^2\frac{c^2}{L^2}$$
where $c$ is a dimensionless HDE parameter and $L$ is an infrared cutoff. In Li's 2004 model,
$$L=L_e \equiv a(t)\int_t^\infty\frac{dt'}{a(t')}$$
is the future event horizon. Li assumed constant $c$, giving
$$w_{\rm DE} = -\frac13 \left( 1+\frac{2\sqrt{\Omega_{\rm DE}}}{c} \right).$$
However, with $c=1$ and $\Omega_{{\rm DE},0}=0.6889$, $w_0\simeq-0.887$, rather than $w=-1$. Does not match observations!
Also, constant-$c$ observational fits often give $c<1$, leading to phantom evolution, null-energy-condition violation and a turning point in $H(z)$. That conclusion assumes $c'=0$.
What about if $c$ is not constant?
Then:
$$c<1, \qquad c'=c-\sqrt{\Omega_\Lambda}>0, \qquad w=-1.$$
Therefore $\dot H = -4\pi G(\rho_m+\frac43\rho_r) \le0$, so there is no finite-redshift turning point and no phantom phase. Thus
$$\boxed{ c<1\not\Rightarrow w<-1 }$$
when $c$ evolves.
Variable-$c$ Event-Horizon HDE
Here, the equation of state becomes
$$\boxed{ w_{\rm DE} = -\frac13 -\frac{2\sqrt{\Omega_{\rm DE}}}{3c} -\frac23\frac{c'}c }.$$
The usual Li expression is only the special case $c'=0$. And indeed, variable-$c$ HDE has been studied a lot in the literature.
Entropy and Black-Holes
The vacuum energy inside the event horizon is
$$E_\Lambda = \frac{4\pi}{3}L_e^3\rho_\Lambda = \frac{H_\Lambda^2L_e^3}{2G}.$$
A Schwarzschild black hole with horizon radius $L_e$ has mass $M_{\rm BH}(L_e) = L_e/(2G)$. Thus
$$\boxed{ \frac{E_\Lambda}{M_{\rm BH}} = H_\Lambda^2L_e^2 = c^2. }$$
So $c^2$ is the fractional saturation of the black-hole energy bound, not necessarily a fixed constant.
The Bekenstein–Hawking entropies of the event horizon and final de Sitter horizon are
$$S_e=\frac{\pi L_e^2}{G}, \qquad S_{\rm dS} = \frac{\pi}{G H_\Lambda^2}.$$
Consequently,
$$\boxed{ c^2(a) = \frac{E_\Lambda}{M_{\rm BH}} = \frac{S_e(a)}{S_{\rm dS}}. }$$
Using the Bekenstein bound $S_B=2\pi E_\Lambda L_e$ also gives $c^2=S_B/S_{\rm BH}$. Hence
$$\boxed{ c^2 = \frac{E_\Lambda}{M_{\rm BH}} = \frac{S_B}{S_{\rm BH}} = \frac{S_e}{S_{\rm dS}}. }$$
The HDE literature offers several motivations for the $M_p^2L^{-2}$ scaling, including energy bounds, entanglement energy, holographic gas, Casimir energy and entropic-force arguments. However, none independently fixes the coefficient without additional microscopic assumptions.
Entropy Bounds
A non-shrinking event horizon requires $\dot L_e\ge0 \iff HL_e\ge1$. Because $HL_e=c/\sqrt{\Omega_\Lambda}$, this gives $c^2\ge\Omega_\Lambda$. The black-hole energy bound gives $E_\Lambda\le M_{\rm BH} \iff c^2\le1$. Therefore,
$$\boxed{ \Omega_\Lambda(a)\le c^2(a)\le1 }$$
or equivalently $S_H\le S_e\le S_{\rm dS}$. The event horizon approaches its final de Sitter value $L_e\longrightarrow H_\Lambda^{-1}$, so $\boxed{c(a)\longrightarrow1}$.
Applying the generalized second law to cosmological event horizons is not universally automatic; published analyses find it more conditional than at the apparent horizon. For ordinary non-phantom $\Lambda$CDM, however, $L_e\ge H^{-1}$ follows directly from the monotonic decrease of $H$.
$\Lambda$CDM
Let us consider LCDM! For a cosmological constant, $\rho_\Lambda = 3M_p^2H_\Lambda^2$ where $H_\Lambda\equiv\sqrt{\Lambda/3}$.
$$\boxed{ \rho_\Lambda = 3M_p^2\frac{c(a)^2}{L_e(a)^2} \qquad c(a)=H_\Lambda L_e(a) }$$
is the future-event-horizon HDE representation of $\Lambda$CDM.
$c'=c-\sqrt{\Omega_\Lambda}$, bounds $\Omega_\Lambda\le c^2\le1$, and $w=-1$
Dead Ends and Limitations
Setting $c=1$ at all times. This saturates the black-hole bound constantly, but gives $w_0\simeq-0.89$, not $w=-1$.
Using entropy monotonicity alone. Conditions such as $0<c^2\le1$, $c'\ge0$ do not select a unique function $c(a)$.
Claiming that $c^2=S_e/S_{\rm dS}$ follows solely from the second law. It additionally requires constant vacuum density, Bekenstein–Hawking entropy and a de Sitter endpoint.
Using $dE=TdS$ naively for the event-horizon interior. The energy inside a growing horizon includes volume and boundary-flux effects; the ordinary Clausius relation does not by itself reproduce $c^2=S_e/S_{\rm dS}$.
Treating all varying-$c$ models as equivalent. A model using $L=H_0^{-1}$ has $w=-1-\frac23c'/c$, while event-horizon HDE has the additional $L_e'$ contribution.
Imposing $\dot c^2/c^2\lesssim H$ as a theorem. This proposed slow-variation criterion is acknowledged in the literature to be debatable. The present trajectory approaches $2H$ relatively during early matter domination, even though its absolute variation tends to zero because $c^2\to0$.
Claiming to have predicted $\Lambda$. The construction determines $c(a)$ after specifying $S_{\rm dS}=3\pi/(G\Lambda)$. It does not explain why that terminal entropy or $\Lambda$ has its observed value.
Wrap
Future-event-horizon HDE need not have constant $c$. For exact $\Lambda$CDM,
$$\boxed{ c(a)=H_\Lambda L_e(a) }$$
and
$$\boxed{ c^2(a) = \frac{E_\Lambda}{M_{\rm BH}} = \frac{S_B}{S_{\rm BH}} = \frac{S_e}{S_{\rm dS}}. }$$
It follows that
$$\boxed{ \Omega_\Lambda\le c^2\le1, \qquad c'=c-\sqrt{\Omega_\Lambda}, \qquad w=-1, \qquad c\to1. }$$
So $\Lambda$CDM corresponds not to permanent saturation $c=1$, but to progressive saturation of the final de Sitter entropy and black-hole energy bounds.
The remaining problem is determining $S_{\rm dS}$, equivalently $\Lambda$, from a deeper theory.
- M. Li, A Model of Holographic Dark Energy (2004).
- N. Radicella and D. Pavón, On the c2c^2 term in the holographic formula for dark energy (2010).
- A. Sheykhi, S. Ghaffari and N. Roshanshah, A note on holographic dark energy with varying c^2 term (2016).
- S. Wang, Y. Wang and M. Li, Holographic Dark Energy (2017).
- M. Malekjani, M. Rezaei and I. A. Akhlaghi, Can Holographic dark energy models fit the observational data? (2018).
- E. Ó Colgáin and M. M. Sheikh-Jabbari, A Critique of Holographic Dark Energy (2021).
- S. Nojiri, S. D. Odintsov and T. Paul, Different faces of generalized holographic dark energy (2021).
- S. Wang and M. Li, Theoretical aspects of holographic dark energy (2023).
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